Wasting Munitions on a Mideast Folly

The United States has long been criticized for its propensity to squander power, resources, and good sense in far-flung conflicts. Recent years have seen this pattern play out in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria – with varying degrees of disaster. The current entanglement in the Gulf is another egregious example of America’s penchant for self-inflicted wounds.

Historians such as Barbara Tuchman have chronicled the destructive allure of great-power hubris throughout history. Her seminal work, “The March of Folly,” masterfully dissected the Renaissance Papacy’s catastrophic blunders and the US’s own Vietnam debacle. These cautionary tales demonstrate how powerful nations often succumb to illusions, refusing to grasp the true nature of their adversaries.

Donald Trump’s Gulf excursion is a prime example of this phenomenon. Despite General Dan Caine’s warnings that a war against Iran would deplete American stockpiles of weaponry, Trump chose to press ahead, ignoring the advice of his own military brass. The consequences are now manifesting in severely depleted munitions stores and an ominous depletion of strategic capabilities.

The latest estimates from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies reveal a staggering reality: nearly two-thirds of America’s Patriot interceptors have been expended, along with half its high-altitude interceptors (Thaads) at $14 million per shot. Forty-five percent of joint air-to-surface missiles (Jassms) and a third of Tomahawk land-attack missiles have also been squandered – all while the nation’s most pressing threats, China and Russia, loom large on the horizon.

As the conflict spreads to the Red Sea and much of the Middle East, it becomes increasingly clear that Iran will not be easily swayed from its position. The Revolutionary Guards are exploiting every opportunity to push their advantage, while Iraqi Shia militias have set fire to Saudi oil-processing hubs, and two tankers were attacked in an Egyptian port.

The economic fallout is already being felt: crude oil prices have surged to $87 a barrel, and the “diesel crack spread” has reached an unprecedented $90 in Texas. This hidden tax on petroleum products will soon be reflected in higher prices at the pump for everyday Americans, while bond yields are expected to continue their upward march.

By tearing up the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal without a replacement, Trump created an environment conducive to conflict. Furthermore, the assassination of Ali Khamenei and the destruction of regime leadership removed a key constraint on Iran’s nuclear ambitions. As former head of Israel’s military intelligence, Danny Citrinowicz, astutely observed, the clerical regime has been supplanted by a more cohesive and perilous military-nationalist entity – one with a stockpile of highly enriched uranium and a strong incentive to accelerate its nuclear program.

This development is a textbook example of great-power folly. Trump’s Gulf misadventure stands as a stark reminder that America’s most formidable foes are not external adversaries but internal policy choices. By squandering resources, ignoring expert advice, and pursuing short-sighted objectives, the US risks creating a self-inflicted crisis of epic proportions – one that may yet prove impossible to reverse.