Yemen’s War of Attrition: Where the Bigger Picture Meets Tactical Gains

The conflict in Yemen has long been viewed as a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, but recent fighting on multiple fronts suggests that both the Houthis and the government are focused on more immediate strategic objectives. The deployment of heavy artillery, including warplanes, missiles, drones, and other equipment by both sides indicates an escalation of tactics rather than a shift in overall strategy.

The battles raging across north, west, and central Yemen are taking place on several key fronts: Taiz and the western coast, Marib and al-Jawf, and Dhalea. Each front has its unique characteristics, but they share a common goal: control of the Red Sea shipping lanes. This is not just about strategic leverage; it’s also about access to resources.

Fighting in Taiz and along the western coast centers on commanding heights and supply routes connecting Taiz to al-Makha. Control of these areas would grant the Houthis a stranglehold on maritime traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, effectively giving them a veto over international shipping. Yazeed al-Jeddawy of the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies warns that a Houthi gain in this region could strengthen their position near the southern entrance to the Red Sea.

In contrast, pro-government forces are battling to expand control over Marib and boost their presence along the western coast. This has significant implications for both sides, affecting not just territorial control but also access to oil resources and strategic infrastructure. The battle for Marib is particularly fateful because of its importance as a government stronghold in north Yemen.

The long-term strategy of both the Houthis and the government often gets overlooked in discussions about this conflict. While immediate tactical gains are crucial, both sides have been engaged in a broader game of attrition that seeks to deplete the other side’s resources and undermine their morale. This was exemplified in 2014 when the Houthis captured Sanaa but were unable to hold Marib due to its strategic importance.

A Houthi expansion into Marib would threaten government presence, weaken its leverage in the north, and grant them control over oil and gas resources – a decades-long goal for the group. Similarly, government gains in al-Jawf could lay the groundwork for further advances and ease the threat to Marib while forcing the Houthis to defend a broader area.

The fighting on the Dhalea front is particularly noteworthy because it has intensified despite the relative calm that followed the UN-brokered ceasefire in April 2022. A Houthi advance there would open a route for their fighters to reach other southern territories, potentially altering the balance of power in Yemen’s conflict.

The international community must take note of these developments and recognize that while proxy wars are often fueled by external interests, local dynamics play an equally significant role in shaping the conflict’s trajectory. The outcome of this war will not only determine the future of Yemen but also have implications for regional stability and global shipping routes.

As both sides continue to engage in a cat-and-mouse game of tactical gains and strategic shifts, the international community would do well to remember that military victories are only temporary; lasting peace requires addressing the underlying issues driving these conflicts.